Facebook 在1月底報完業績，下次報業績在4月底。所以如果有勁爆的事情會發生的話，5月的option 賭盤可見端倪。現在只開出5月17日的monthly option,
weekly option 還沒開始。
2/28的關門價是$68.46/股。
有人願意先給你$2.38/股的預約金，如果到了5/17關門價超過$80/股，你必須賣給他$80/股，你會不會心動?
有人願意先給你$1.54/股的預約金，如果到了5/17關門價超過$85/股，你必須賣給他$85/股，你會不會心動?
還有人願意先給你$1.00/股的預約金，如果到了5/17關門價超過$90/股，你必須賣給他$90/股，你會不會心動?
你覺得哪個contract比較好? $80? $85? $90? 為什麼?
你會在這幾天趁低價買些FB股票來賣那些option contract 嗎?
假設FB的股票在5/17只到了$79.98/股，賣了option contract的人仍舊保有股票，賣了不同contract的人，仍舊保有不等的預約金在口袋裡。假設FB的股票在5/17漲到了$82.98/股，賣$80
contract 的人每股少賺了60 cents, 但是他等於是賣到了$82.38/股。假如你的本金是$69.23/股，你應該高興賺了$13.15/股，或是懊惱少賺了$0.60/股?
如果沒有看到這篇文章，你會想像到FB在5月中會漲到
$80? $85? $90? 而且還有人會給你錢表明他的信心嗎?
I don't know the answer.
ReplyDeleteLast year, I sold calls several times and thought I would be happy with the strike price and the income from the contract. But, I lost every time because FB went over much higher than the strike price.
所以依你對FB的經驗，賣$90的contract會比$80的contract好?
DeleteThat is what my experience tells me.
DeleteBut, I don't trust my experience because there are other factors I have not understood or thought about.
If it is always better to sell $90 calls, then the $80 or $85 calls won't exist. They exist
for good reasons which I don't understand.
My current thought is - $80 is better than $90 for three reasons:
Delete1. more than twice the premium income
2. better chance to sell at $80 than $90.
3. in case FB does not go up and go down, the higher premium will protect my purchase price at $68 or whatever.
未來的市場，事件的發生只能用或然率來衡量，況且市場環境的變動、Facebook本身的業務執行，加上人為操縱，無人能確定到時候的價位會在哪裡。但是這些預約金可以開我們的眼界。
Delete