悼亡弟

今天下午弟妹在臉書的信息裡，告訴我：我的弟弟突然身體不適，看似中暑，沒想到卻這樣子就走啦，去世了。

乍聽到這消息，我直覺的看到一架缺了一邊尾翼的飛機，雖然這架飛機從未真正的飛上天，擺在腦海裡任憑風雨吹打了60年，現在是明顯的殘缺了。

這架飛機是母親一手建造的作品，在母親的品管要求下，我們都通過了聯考上第一志願初中的檢驗；雖然弟弟在滿月時被三姨帶去嘉義大林鐵嘴半仙那裏相命，給了“以後要當縣長”的祝福，但是他的志願卻是“打棒球”，只要有棒球打就滿足了。

這架飛機的零組件在1982年時，四個兄弟姊妹，一件不缺的在德州休斯頓組合起來，由我的父親主導，讓我的小弟當駕駛，裝上在奧斯汀開中餐館的引擎，有模有樣的想飛起來；但是只有我認為是飛不起來的；因為我那溫良恭儉讓的小弟，從未想到要當老闆，也從未想到要賺錢，在他的價值觀裡，錢只是用來消費的。

所以這個模型飛機從未真的飛上天，小弟自個兒飛回台灣，成家了， 四個兄弟姊妹各自養兒育女，從此再也沒有兄弟姊妹可以拼湊成飛機的幻想。一直到今天，我又看到母親這架從未起飛的掉了一邊尾翼的勞作成品。

選擇股票

一般人認為買賣股票有三難：

1. 選擇股票難
2. 何時下手買進難
3. 何時下手賣出難

跟我買賣股票的學生們，一開始都認為樣樣難。經過這麼幾年下來，只要有樣學樣，笑呵呵的沒有一樣難。如果硬要逼著他們回答，大概會回答選擇股票難。

如果我選的股票，股價是上面那種德行，一定被誇得是“天縱英明”。

如果是這種德行，私底下一定被罵翻了天。

問題是：這是同一個股票，前後兩個時段的表現；真正“天縱英明”的──就是要能從頭賺到尾，不是嗎？

事後諸葛亮

許多人都經歷過這次07/23/2014 Facebook 第二次季報前後股價波動的興奮的經驗，不少人也狠狠的撈了一把；如今已過了三個星期，有人因為興奮過度，到現在還是不知所措，也有人擔心又會掉回$60幾塊...；距離下個季報還早得很，所以讓我們把討論範圍侷限在這些日子來，FB的買賣策略。

在價位圖的07/10~7/22的價位波動，一天漲個兩塊錢簡直是理所當然的，要跌個一塊錢，可能是有人把馬航的客機打下來，或是FED的印鈔機壞掉了；所以基本策略就是慢慢的賣(不賣也無所謂)，快快的買回來。

到了開獎的那天07/23下午和07/24一大早，所有的股民神經線都繃得緊緊的，大家都知道要漲，問題是到底要漲多少，官方紀錄只漲到$76.74/股，但是諸葛亮卻賣到了$77.64/股和$78.19/股，那不是黑市價格，而是早市（天黑黑的）價格，不列入官方紀錄；所以基本策略就是早起的鳥兒有蟲吃，當然，早起的蟲兒也會被早起的鳥兒吃。

07/25~08/19就是我們的重點所在，三個星期以來，每天上上下下的，總共不超過三塊，每天會漲跌超過一塊的，一定是股票市場當天的漲跌在兩三百點之間；而且是漲漲跌跌的拉鋸戰；就像是第一次世界大戰的壕溝戰，說是“西線無戰事”，但是每天雙方還是死傷上千百人。

在這段期間裡，就是把那兩天高價賣出的現金當本錢，逢低就買，再低再買，逢高就賣，再高再賣；這裡面只有一個例外：因為家裡25年老的冷暖氣系統該換新了，廠商報價$4,950，所以收割$4,300來平衡預算。總之，$3,570就是這段毫無做為的時段的養老金的收入。

FB

07/08/14 buy 500 @62.71 07/11/14 sell 500 @66.54 net $1,900

07/08/14 buy 500 @62.51 07/11/14 sell 500 @66.09 net $1,770

07/07/14 buy 500 @65.41 07/21/14 sell 500 @69.89 net $2,235

07/21/14 buy 500 @69.51 07/23/14 sell 500 @71.14 net $815

01/13/14 buy 500 @56.11 07/23/14 sell 500 @72.49 net $8,170

03/06/14 buy 500 @70.81 07/23/14 sell 500 @74.84 net $2,020

03/17/14 buy 500 @66.81 07/24/14 sell 500 @77.64 net $5,395

03/24/14 buy 250 @65.91 07/24/14 sell 250 @78.19 net $3,065

07/29/14 buy 500 @73.66 07/30/14 sell 500 @75.04 net $670

07/31/14 buy 500 @73.51 08/13/14 sell 500 @74.24 net $350

07/31/14 buy 500 @72.61 08/04/14 sell 500 @73.84 net $600

08/05/14 buy 500 @72.61 08/07/14 sell 500 @73.89 net $620

08/07/14 buy 500 @72.81 08/13/14 sell 500 @73.94 net $550

03/24/14 buy 500 @65.56 08/14/14 sell 500 @74.20 net $4,300

08/13/14 buy 500 @73.66 08/19/14 sell 500 @75.27 net $780

A Slip of the Tongue說溜了嘴

C. S. Lewis

1956

「神啊，所有信靠祢的人的保護者，沒有你，沒有什麼是堅強的，沒有什麼是神聖的：請加倍賜給我們祢的憐憫；因著祢是我們的統治者和引導者，使我們可以拋棄暫時的事物，而不至於最終失去永恆的事物：天父啊，為了我們的主耶穌基督，應允這一點。阿門。」

“O God, the protector of all that trust in thee, without whom nothing is strong, nothing is holy: Increase and multiply upon us thy mercy; that, through being our ruler and guide, we may so pass through things temporal, that we finally lose not the things eternal: Grant this, O heavenly Father, for the sake of Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.”

不久以前，在我個人的禱告裡，我引用了英國教會在五旬節後第四個主日的禱告辭；我發現我說溜了嘴：

我本來想說：「...使我能不顧世俗的牽掛，而不致於失掉永恆的事物...」結果發現我是這麼禱告的：「...使我能不顧永恆的牽掛，而不致於失掉俗世的事物...」

當然，我不認為說溜了嘴是個罪過；也不認為我有資格稱得上是個佛洛伊德的粉絲，會相信所有的說溜了嘴，都有深遠的意義。不過我認為，有些還是有意義的，這個就屬於其中之一。我認為，在不經意中，我說出了幾乎是我的某些真正的願望。

Not long ago when I was using the collect for the fourth Sunday after Trinity in my private prayers I found that I had made a slip of the tongue. I had meant to pray that I might so pass through things temporal that I finally lost not the things eternal; I found I had prayed so to pass through things eternal that I finally lost not the things temporal. Of course, I don't think that a slip of the tongue is a sin. I am not sure that I am even a strict enough Freudian to believe that all such slips, without exception, are deeply significant. But I think some of them are significant, and I thought this was one of that sort. I thought that what I had inadvertently said very nearly expressed something I had really wished.

當然，“幾乎是”並非“恰恰是”。我從未笨到認為永恆真的可以“不顧”。為了要不妨礙我的世俗事物而不顧的，就是在專注於永恆而把自己溶於其中的那些時刻。

Very nearly; not, of course, precisely. I had never been quite stupid enough to think that the eternal could, strictly, be “passed through.” What I had wanted to pass through without prejudice to my things temporal was those hours or moments in which I attended to the eternal, in which I exposed myself to it.

I mean this sort of things. I say my prayers, I read a book of devotion, I prepare for, or receive, the Sacrament. But while I do these things, there is, so to speak, a voice inside me that urges caution. It tells me to be careful, to keep my head, not to go too far, not to burn my boats. I come into the presence of God with a great fear lest anything should happen to me within that presence which will prove too intolerably inconvenient when I have come out again into my “ordinary” life. I don’t want to be carried away into any resolution which I shall afterwards regret. For I know I shall be feeling quite different after breakfast; I don’t want anything to happen to me at the altar which will run up too big a bill to pay then. It would be very disagreeable, for instance, to take the duty of charity (while I am at the altar) so seriously that after breakfast I had to tear up the really stunning reply I had written to an impudent correspondent yesterday and mean to post today. It would be very tiresome to commit myself to a programme of temperance which will cut off my after-breakfast cigarette (or, at best, make it cruelly alternative to a cigarette latter in the morning). Even repentance of past acts will have to be paid for. By repenting, one acknowledges them as sins – therefore not to be repeated. Better leave that issue undecided.

The root principle of all these precautions is the same: to guard the things temporal.

This is my endlessly recurrent temptation: to go down to that Sea (I think St. John of the Cross called God a sea) and there neither dive nor swim nor float, but only dabble and splash, careful not to get out of my depth and holding on to the lifeline which connects me with my things temporal.

It is different from the temptations that met us at the beginning of the Christian life. Then we fought against admitting the claims of the eternal at all. And when we had fought, and been beaten, and surrendered, we supposed that all would be fairly plain sailing. This temptation comes later. It is addressed to those who have already admitted the claim in principle and are even making some sort of effort to meet it. Our temptation is too look eagerly for the minimum that will be accepted. We are in fact very like honest but reluctant taxpayers. We approve of an income tax in principle. We make our returns truthfully. But we dread a rise in the tax. We are very careful to pay no more than is necessary. And we hope– we very ardently hope – that after we have paid it there will still be enough left to live on.

The lie consists in the suggestion that our best protection is a prudent regard for the safety of our pocket, our habitual indulgences, and our ambitions. But that is quite false. Our real protection is to be sought elsewhere: in common Christian usage, in moral theology, in steady rational thinking, in the advice of good friends and good books. Swimming lessons are better than a lifeline to the shore. For of course that lifeline is really a death line. There is no parallel to paying taxes and living on the remainder.

For it is not so much of our time and so much of our attention that God demands; it is not even all our time and all our attention; it is ourselves. For each of us the Baptist’s words are true: “He must increase and I decrease.” He will be infinitely merciful to our repeated failures; I know no promise that He will accept a deliberate compromise. For He has, in the last resort, nothing to give us but Himself; and He can give that only insofar as our self-affirming will retires and makes room for Him in our souls. Let us make up our minds to it; there will be nothing “of our own” left over to live on, no “ordinary” life. I do not mean that each of us will necessarily be called to be a martyr or even an ascetic. That’s as may be. For some the Christian life will include much leisure, many occupations we naturally like. But these will be received from God’s hands. In a perfect Christian they would be as much part of his “religion,” his “service,” as his hardest duties, and his feasts would be as Christian as his fasts. What cannot be admitted–what must exist only as an undefeated but daily resisted enemy–is the idea of something that is “our own,” some area in which we are to be “out of school,” on which God has no claim.

For He claims all, because He is love and must bless. He cannot bless us unless He has us. When we try to keep within us an area that is our own, we try to keep an area of death. Therefore, in love, He claims all. There’s no bargaining with Him.

That is, I take it, the meaning of all those sayings that alarm me most. Thomas More said, “If ye make indentures with God how much ye will serve Him, ye shall find ye have signed both of them yourself.” Law, in his terrible, cool voice, said, “Many will be rejected at the last day, not because they have taken time and pains about their salvation, but because they have not taken time and pains enough”; and later, in his richer, Behmenite period, “If you have not chosen the Kingdom of God, it will make in the end no difference what you have chosen instead.” Those are hard words to take. Will it really make no difference whether it was women or patriotism, cocaine or art, whisky or a seat in the Cabinet, money or science? Well, surely no difference that matters. We shall have missed the end for which we are formed and rejected the only thing that satisfies. Does it matter to a man dying in a desert by which choice of route he missed the only well?

It is a remarkable fact that on this subject Heaven and Hell speak with one voice. The tempter tells me, “Take care. Think how much this good resolve, the acceptance of this Grace, is going to cost.” But Our Lord equally tells us to count the cost.” But our Lord equally tells us to count the cost. Even in human affairs great importance is attached to agreement of those whose testimony hardly ever agrees. Here, more. Between them it would seem to be pretty clear that paddling [near the shore] is of little consequence. What matters, what Heaven desires and Hell fears, is precisely that further step, out of our depth, out of our own control. And yet, I am not in despair…

I do not think any efforts of my own will can end once and for all this craving for limited liabilities, this fatal reservation. Only God can. I have good faith and hope He will. Of course, I don’t mean that I can therefore, as they say, “sit back.” What God does for us. He does in us. The process of doing it will appear to me to be the daily and hourly repeated exercises of my own will in renouncing this attitude, especially each morning, for it grows all over me like a new shell each night. Failures will be forgiven; it is acquiescence that is fatal, the permitted, regularized presence of an area in ourselves which we still claim for our own. We may never, this side of death, drive the invader out of our territory, but we must not be in the Resistance, not in the Vichy government. And this, so far as I can yet see, must be begun again every day. Our morning prayer should be that in the Imitation: Da hodie perfecte incipere– grant me to make an unflawed beginning today, for I have done nothing yet.

囤積居奇的殷實商人

BX (Blackstone) 是一個很好的股票，我從06/26/07買了1000股@31.41/股，往下一直買啊賣啊，到了02/19/09的$4.18/股，再往上一直買啊賣啊，一路上上下下，曲曲折折的到了(a)12/23/13時只剩下500股, 賣完了就得下車。所以我只賣了250股。但是到了(b)01/03/14還是賣光光的啦！實在很捨不得。

所以在(c)01/06/14決定把BX的火炬再點燃起來，但是在01/13/14又熄火啦！不要緊，過一會兒，(d)加碼成500股，但是在01/21/14不賺白不賺，又賣光啦！(e)馬上又補回500股。

過幾天莫名其妙的大跌，好像是跟FED的tapper有關，(f)一口氣補了2,500股。01/30/14業績大好，還宣布要發58 cents的紅利，但是不漲反跌，火大了，(g)再補3,300股。一共領了$3,654的紅利。

這就是如何在賣光光以後，又囤積了6,300股BX的過程。轉眼又過了半年，BX的倉庫又積了將近一萬股，每個星期總要買啊賣啊個一兩次，又收了一次35cents/股的紅利，最近這一次是55cents/股，而且最近有一次也賣到了35.48/股。

03/04/14 又賣得精光了。

雖然標題為囤積居奇，其實我是個殷實的商人。

BX

.................

06/11/13 b 500 @21.31 09/18/13 s 500 @24.29 net $115+1,470

06/12/13 b 500 @20.71 06/14/13 s 500 @21.34 net $300

06/14/13 b 500 @20.81 10/04/13 s 500 @26.39 net $115+2,770

06/20/13 b 500 @20.56 10/04/13 s 500 @25.89 net $115+2,650

06/24/13 b 500 @19.51 06/25/13 s 500 @20.54 net $500

07/05/13 b 500 @20.36 07/08/13 s 500 @21.04 net $320

07/24/13 b 500 @23.61 10/16/13 s 500 @27.29 net $115+1,820

08/14/13 b 500 @22.51 09/16/13 s 500 @23.63 net $545

08/15/13 b 500 @21.66 09/11/13 s 500 @22.87 net $590

08/20/13 b 500 @21.76 10/22/13 s 500 @28.63 net $3,420

08/20/13 b 500 @21.76 11/11/13 s 500 @26.84 net $115+2,520

08/20/13 b 500 @21.76 12/10/13 s 500 @29.19 net $115+3,700

08/20/13 b 250 @21.76 12/23/13 s 250 @30.84 net $72+2,250(a)

08/20/13 b 250 @21.76 01/03/14 s 250 @32.09 net $72+2,565(b)

10/09/13 b 500 @25.02 10/11/13 s 500 @26.39 net $670

10/17/13 b 500 @26.41 10/18/13 s 500 @27.54 net $550

10/23/13 b 500 @27.67 11/25/13 s 500 @27.98 net $115+140

10/28/13 b 500 @26.16 10/29/13 s 500 @26.89 net $345

10/30/13 b 500 @26.26 11/01/13 s 500 @26.89 net $300

11/07/13 b 500 @26.32 11/14/13 s 500 @27.49 net $570

11/12/13 b 500 @25.81 11/13/13 s 500 @26.79 net $470

11/20/13 b 500 @26.26 11/22/13 s 500 @27.17 net $435

01/06/14 b 300 @31.46 01/13/14 s 300 @32.79 net $380(c)

01/13/14 b 500 @32.26 01/21/14 s 500 @33.29 net $495(d)

01/21/14 b 500 @32.81 03/10/14 s 500 @35.19 net $290+1,170(e)

01/23/14 b 500 @32.07 03/12/14 s @34.04 net $970

01/24/14 b 1000 @31.01 11/10/14 s @32.29 net $1,160+1,920

01/24/14 b 500 @30.01 02/25/14 s @33.19 net $290+1,570(f) (h)

01/24/14 b 500 @30.01 03/04/14 s @33.53 net $290+1,750(f) (h)

01/30/14 b 500 @32.85 03/02/15 s @38.09 net $2,620+465+275+220+390

01/30/14 b 500 @32.85 02/24/15 s @37.94 net $2,530+465+275+220+390

01/30/14 b 1000 @32.01 01/22/15 s @35.84 net $3,820+ 930+550+440

01/30/14 b 800 @31.61 12/04/14 s @33.72 net $1,670+744+440+352

02/03/14 b 500 @30.66 03/06/14 s @34.84 net $290+2,070(g) (i)

02/25/14 b 500 @32.76 02/28/14 s @33.68 net $440

03/03/14 b 540 @32.66 03/04/14 s @33.53 net $400

03/11/14 b 500 @34.56 03/03/15 s @38.29 net $1,850+175+275+220+390

03/12/14 b 100 @33.31 03/12/14 s @34.04 net $70

03/12/14 b 500 @33.31 02/13/15 s @37.04 net $1,850+175+275+220+390

03/13/14 b 600 @33.26 03/18/14 s @34.19 net $540

03/24/14 b 600 @33.11 01/22/15 s @35.69 net $1,540+210+330+264

03/24/14 b 1000 @32.76 04/04/14 s @34.29 net $1,510 (h)

03/25/14 b 600 @32.51 04/01/14 s @33.79 net $750

03/26/14 b 500 @31.26 03/28/14 s @33.14 net $920+390

04/07/14 b 1000 @32.21 02/13/15 s @37.37 net $5,140+350+550+440+780

04/07/14 b 100 @31.61 01/29/15 s @37.50 net $580

04/07/14 b 400 @31.61 02/24/15 s @37.83 net $2,500+1,060 div

04/08/14 b 500 @30.88 07/02/14 s @34.14 net $175+1,615

04/08/14 b 500 @30.88 06/11/14 s @33.94 net $175+1,515

04/08/14 b 400 @30.61 06/06/14 s @33.19 net $140+1,020

04/08/14 b 400 @30.61 06/05/14 s @32.79 net $140+860

04/08/14 b 370 @30.20 04/22/14 s @32.99 net $1,015

04/08/14 b 500 @30.01 04/22/14 s @33.14 net $1,500

04/11/14 b 500 @29.01 04/22/14 s @32.39 net $1,690

04/11/14 b 500 @29.01 04/17/14 s @31.99 net $1,475

04/23/14 b 500 @32.56 04/24/14 s @32.97 net $175+185+275

04/24/14 b 380 @31.71 12/05/14 s @34.09 net $890+209+167

04/28/14 b 500 @30.66 06/06/14 s @33.49 net $1,400

04/28/14 b 750 @30.01 06/05/14 s @32.49 net $1,840

05/05/14 b 500 @29.51 06/04/14 s @31.89 net $1,185

05/05/14 b 500 @29.51 05/22/14 s @31.49 net $990

05/07/14 b 500 @28.91 05/21/14 s @30.89 net $980

05/07/14 b 500 @28.91 05/20/14 s @30.34 net $700

05/20/14 b 790 @29.81 05/21/14 s @31.04 net $955

06/24/14 b 500 @32.96 07/01/14 s @33.84 net $420

07/08/14 b 500 @32.91 07/16/14 s @34.04 net $550

07/17/14 b 500 @34.44 03/04/15 s @38.58 net $2,050+275+220+390

07/17/14 b 500 @34.44 07/18/14 s @35.48 net $500

07/31/14 b 500 @33.41 01/23/15 s @36.18 net $1,370+275+220

07/31/14 b 750 @32.76 08/11/14 s @33.89 net $830

08/06/14 b 1000 @32.15 08/08/14 s @32.94 net $770

08/20/14 b 825 @32.71 08/28/14 s @33.49 net $625

08/22/14 b 500 @32.31 08/25/14 s @32.98 net $320

09/15/14 b 675 @32.11 09/16/14 s @32.59 net $305

09/23/14 b 1000 @32.01 02/13/15 s @37.39 net $5,350+440+780

09/24/14 b 700 @31.31 09/26/14 s @32.14 net $565

09/29/14 b 700 @31.36 09/29/14 s @31.94 net $390

09/30/14 b 700 @31.41 11/10/14 s @32.19 net $530+308

10/01/14 b 870 @30.76 10/02/14 s @31.14 net $310

10/07/14 b 890 @30.56 11/07/14 s @31.04 net $410+391

10/09/14 b 780 @29.76 10/21/14 s @30.79 net $780

10/29/14 b 850 @29.71 10/31/14 s @30.29 net $475